Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 988 at 19:14, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 988 Southwest	AUS 19:14	ONT 20:24	31%	10%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173	6h 01m	91%	80%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 36m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	6h 17m	97%	79%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:28 → ONT 09:41AA 1820	6h 40m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	AUS 17:41 → PDX 19:50AS 1396	1h 44m Portland	PDX 21:34 → ONT 00:05 +1AS 534	8h 24m	95%	75%
United Details →	AUS 05:57 → SFO 07:48UA 2177	2h 52m San Francisco	SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661	8h 15m	99%	73%
American Details →	AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579	3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:34 → ONT 11:52AA 2956	7h 52m	98%	71%
United Details →	AUS 13:35 → SFO 15:41UA 1336	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 18:53 → ONT 20:30UA 2478	8h 55m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	6h 23m	90%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON