Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1878 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–53%.

Safest bet that day UA 1878 AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1625 AUS 17:33 → ORD 20:13 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1878 United Flight history →	AUS 06:40	ORD 09:39	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 1064 American Flight history →	AUS 06:01	ORD 09:00	8%	5%	1.3%	84%
UA 2133 United Flight history →	AUS 08:36	ORD 11:24	12%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 1726 American Flight history →	AUS 08:00	ORD 11:00	14%	7%	1.5%	80%
UA 456 United Flight history →	AUS 13:01	ORD 15:57	33%	16%	2.0%	72%
AA 1062 American	AUS 15:35	ORD 18:38	42%	20%	2.2%	no record
AA 1568 American Flight history →	AUS 18:46	ORD 21:53	43%	18%	1.8%	48%
UA 1990 United Flight history →	AUS 17:20	ORD 20:21	51%	21%	1.4%	60%worse than usual
UA 1625 United Flight history →	AUS 17:33	ORD 20:13	53%	22%	1.3%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON