Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 396 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 396 AUS 06:00 → PHX 06:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 403 AUS 19:17 → PHX 19:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 396 Southwest	AUS 06:00	PHX 06:32	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 397 Southwest	AUS 09:21	PHX 09:53	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	AUS 08:03	PHX 08:52	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 455 American Flight history →	AUS 08:16	PHX 08:56	14%	6%	0.8%	90%
WN 1717 Southwest	AUS 11:35	PHX 12:06	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2045 Southwest	AUS 14:05	PHX 14:36	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2042 American Flight history →	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:28	25%	10%	0.7%	83%
AA 1059 American	AUS 14:25	PHX 14:59	26%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 4665 Southwest	AUS 17:34	PHX 18:05	32%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 404 Southwest	AUS 21:32	PHX 22:02	33%	13%	0.8%	no record
WN 403 Southwest	AUS 19:17	PHX 19:48	33%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON