tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 684 at 17:05, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 684 Southwest AUS 17:05 PIT 21:08 23% 11% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 27m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 6h 35m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 07m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 8h 37m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:35 → JFK 12:25DL 1411 2h 45m New York JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic 8h 40m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 3h 46m Boston BOS 16:15 → PIT 18:23DL 5680 · flown by Republic 10h 03m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:00 → PIT 15:56UA 315 7h 46m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 3h 01m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 43m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 19:51 → PIT 22:54DL 1134 8h 06m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → BOS 19:42DL 1156 48m Boston BOS 20:30 → PIT 22:33DL 5679 · flown by Republic 7h 03m 65% 52%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 18:13 → PIT 22:17UA 2757 5h 07m 57% 42%
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990 59m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 5h 39m 47% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON