Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3901 at 13:40, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3901 Southwest	AUS 13:40	PNS 15:38	15%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640	7h 16m	98%	83%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	3h 35m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	6h 58m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 28m	100%	80%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 41m Denver	DEN 11:30 → PNS 15:30UA 8118	7h 00m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	54m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	4h 26m	91%	77%
United Details →	AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966	1h 48m Houston	IAH 08:00 → PNS 09:43UA 4293 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 36m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	6h 47m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 18:06 → MIA 21:59AA 2324	1h 09m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	5h 53m	67%	52%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:20 → ATL 22:37DL 1397	51m Atlanta	ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807	4h 23m	65%	50%
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	47m Houston	IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa	3h 48m	54%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON