Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 999 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Safest bet that day WN 999 AUS 08:05 → RDU 12:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 572 AUS 20:25 → RDU 00:19 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 999 Southwest	AUS 08:05	RDU 12:01	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 572 Southwest	AUS 20:25	RDU 00:19	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 09:52	RDU 14:07	17%	8%	0.0%	83%
DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 19:43	RDU 21:45	25%	11%	0.4%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON