tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 793 at 12:45, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 793 Southwest AUS 12:45 RNO 14:21 18% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:04 → LAX 15:31UA 637 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 18:55 → RNO 20:39UA 5411 · flown by SkyWest 8h 35m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 54m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 6h 41m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:04 → LAX 09:20UA 357 3h 44m Los Angeles LAX 13:04 → RNO 14:35UA 1544 8h 31m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671 2h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 6h 09m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911 7h 10m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → AUS 08:16 → PHX 08:56AA 455 1h 26m Phoenix PHX 10:22 → RNO 12:22AA 1437 6h 06m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:35 → SFO 15:41UA 1336 47m San Francisco SFO 16:28 → RNO 17:40UA 2690 6h 05m 69% 46%
UnitedDetails → AUS 20:01 → SFO 21:50UA 292 55m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 5h 57m 60% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON