Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2350 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 2350 AUS 06:35 → SAN 07:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2496 AUS 18:15 → SAN 19:15 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2350 Southwest	AUS 06:35	SAN 07:55	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 3293 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SAN 07:08	12%	5%	0.9%	89%
WN 411 Southwest	AUS 10:55	SAN 12:14	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2719 Southwest	AUS 13:20	SAN 14:38	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 3489 SkyWest	AUS 15:02	SAN 16:11	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 3464 SkyWest	AUS 16:36	SAN 17:46	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
OO 3300 SkyWest	AUS 20:01	SAN 21:10	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 418 Southwest	AUS 22:25	SAN 23:25	34%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2496 Southwest	AUS 18:15	SAN 19:15	40%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON