Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 780 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 780 AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 410 AUS 18:15 → SEA 20:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 780 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SEA 08:23	7%	4%	1.0%	93%
DL 1684 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:14	SEA 13:45	14%	4%	1.0%	94%
AS 224 Alaska	AUS 08:35	SEA 10:50	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 503 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 16:17	SEA 18:47	25%	8%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:14	SEA 20:46	28%	8%	0.9%	76%
AS 339 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 19:07	SEA 21:35	32%	10%	0.9%	74%
WN 410 Southwest	AUS 18:15	SEA 20:32	39%	13%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 01m Denver	DEN 07:59 → SEA 09:48UA 1348	6h 09m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	6h 08m	81%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON