Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2177 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2177 AUS 05:57 → SFO 07:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 449 AUS 16:40 → SFO 18:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2177 United Flight history →	AUS 05:57	SFO 07:48	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:10	SFO 08:47	13%	6%	0.7%	72%
UA 1668 United Flight history →	AUS 08:40	SFO 10:25	24%	7%	0.6%	73%
WN 3177 Southwest	AUS 11:45	SFO 13:29	26%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 1336 United Flight history →	AUS 13:35	SFO 15:41	26%	11%	0.6%	67%
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:21	SFO 17:04	29%	12%	0.6%	50%
UA 442 United Flight history →	AUS 15:35	SFO 17:24	31%	11%	0.6%	65%
UA 1204 United	AUS 21:40	SFO 23:23	37%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 292 United Flight history →	AUS 20:01	SFO 21:50	38%	11%	0.6%	64%
WN 449 Southwest	AUS 16:40	SFO 18:25	39%	14%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON