Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3800 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3800 AUS 06:30 → SLC 08:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 323 AUS 21:32 → SLC 23:26 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3800 Southwest	AUS 06:30	SLC 08:23	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2618 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	SLC 10:12	11%	4%	0.7%	94%
DL 3908 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:30	SLC 16:39	20%	8%	1.0%	86%
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:20	SLC 14:09	22%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:25	SLC 21:21	27%	8%	1.3%	82%
WN 323 Southwest	AUS 21:32	SLC 23:26	34%	13%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON