tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3201 at 19:45, with a 42% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3201 Southwest AUS 19:45 SMF 21:29 42% 10% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 5h 56m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 59m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 2h 03m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 7h 06m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23DL 780 1h 47m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 8h 17m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 18:41 → SMF 20:10DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest 8h 30m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 05m Portland PDX 10:30 → SMF 12:10AS 653 6h 55m 92% 79%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:30 → LAX 08:37DL 306 3h 28m Los Angeles LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 8h 02m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 01m 93% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 15:35 → SFO 17:24UA 442 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 6h 01m 73% 54%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:29 → DEN 20:00UA 439 1h 07m Denver DEN 21:07 → SMF 22:40UA 1602 6h 11m 73% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON