tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 456 at 20:25, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 456 Southwest AUS 20:25 SNA 21:33 32% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 13m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 8h 00m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 44m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → SNA 09:43AA 2114 6h 42m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 1h 48m Houston IAH 12:33 → SNA 14:20UA 1533 6h 45m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 6h 21m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:35 → SFO 15:41UA 1336 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 9h 20m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 3h 18m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 52m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:00 → IAD 16:19UA 2344 1h 23m Dulles IAD 17:42 → SNA 20:19UA 2319 10h 19m 93% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 57m Houston IAH 20:07 → SNA 21:40UA 326 5h 36m 66% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON