tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4420 at 18:45, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4420 Southwest AUS 18:45 TUL 20:20 28% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 06m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 31m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 40m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 2h 32m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 5h 11m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:07 → CLT 09:54AA 1032 1h 31m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → TUL 13:01AA 2657 6h 54m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 2h 49m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 5h 42m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:44 → TUL 10:02AA 2348 5h 01m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 7h 29m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 57m Houston IAH 20:07 → TUL 21:59UA 1927 3h 55m 66% 47%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:29 → DEN 20:00UA 439 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 5h 18m 64% 43%
AmericanDetails → AUS 18:41 → DFW 19:56AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:49 → TUL 22:11AA 2014 3h 30m 66% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON