Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2712 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2712 AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 3101 AVL 20:17 → ATL 21:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2712 Delta Flight history →	AVL 05:35	ATL 06:34	7%	3%	1.6%	88%
DL 3059 Delta	AVL 11:46	ATL 12:54	12%	3%	1.6%	no record
DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	AVL 10:05	ATL 11:05	12%	3%	1.4%	88%
DL 2853 Delta Flight history →	AVL 07:53	ATL 08:57	14%	3%	1.6%	91%
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	AVL 14:03	ATL 15:11	19%	4%	1.6%	87%
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	AVL 15:25	ATL 16:30	22%	5%	1.4%	80%
DL 3101 Delta Flight history →	AVL 20:17	ATL 21:29	24%	7%	1.6%	80%
DL 5122 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 19:45	ATL 21:02	40%	31%	2.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON