Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 5778 at 12:59, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5778 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 12:59	BOS 15:20	11%	6%	1.1%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	7h 10m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 54m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 39m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:03 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 18:37 → BOS 21:05DL 821	7h 02m	98%	69%
American Details →	AVL 18:13 → CLT 19:13AA 5489 · flown by PSA	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → BOS 00:37 +1AA 1843	6h 24m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → BOS 22:25DL 457	7h 00m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	AVL 20:17 → ATL 21:29DL 3101	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	5h 03m	81%	63%
American Details →	AVL 12:01 → DCA 13:41AA 5213 · flown by PSA	1h 36m Washington	DCA 15:17 → BOS 17:12AA 955	5h 11m	91%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AVL 10:48 → ORD 11:52UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	51m Chicago	ORD 12:43 → BOS 16:04UA 2401	5h 16m	72%	49%
American Details →	AVL 16:52 → DFW 18:30AA 569	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:33 → BOS 00:12 +1AA 1366	7h 20m	71%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON