Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5491 AVL 12:46 → CLT 13:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5489 AVL 18:13 → CLT 19:13 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5491 PSA	AVL 12:46	CLT 13:46	17%	5%	3.0%	no record
OH 5444 PSA	AVL 14:40	CLT 15:40	19%	5%	2.9%	no record
OH 5127 PSA	AVL 19:40	CLT 20:41	20%	7%	3.4%	no record
OH 5588 PSA	AVL 15:58	CLT 16:58	22%	6%	2.8%	no record
AA 5489 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 18:13	CLT 19:13	24%	8%	3.2%	89%worse than usual
AA 6033 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 08:52	CLT 10:14	8%	3%	1.4%	92%
AA 6101 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 11:20	CLT 12:32	12%	3%	2.0%	88%
AA 6112 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 14:44	CLT 15:58	20%	11%	0.0%	80%
AA 6032 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 18:20	CLT 19:39	39%	21%	0.0%	61%
AA 5792 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 20:15	CLT 21:32	49%	12%	0.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON