Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5213 at 12:01 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 12:01	DCA 13:41	25%	7%	2.7%	79%
AA 5052 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 19:42	DCA 21:22	38%	17%	6.4%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 52m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798	4h 53m	91%	74%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 51m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:59 → BOS 15:20DL 5778 · flown by Republic	2h 30m Boston	BOS 17:50 → DCA 19:56DL 5667 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	100%	70%
American Details →	AVL 18:13 → CLT 19:13AA 5489 · flown by PSA	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	5h 40m	100%	63%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:03 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 44m	99%	62%
United Details →	AVL 10:48 → ORD 11:52UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	6h 24m	96%	61%
American Details →	AVL 16:09 → LGA 18:16AA 4418 · flown by Republic	1h 35m New York	LGA 19:51 → DCA 21:21AA 4473 · flown by Republic	5h 12m	90%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AVL 10:48 → ORD 11:52UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	53m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	5h 04m	75%	53%
American Details →	AVL 11:20 → ORD 12:26AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	51m Chicago	ORD 13:17 → DCA 16:22AA 789	5h 02m	69%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON