Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 440 at 15:32, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 440 United	AVL 15:32	DEN 16:54	28%	13%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 30m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 07m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 53m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	7h 18m	98%	64%
American Details →	AVL 18:13 → CLT 19:13AA 5489 · flown by PSA	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 22:48 → DEN 00:15 +1AA 1659	8h 02m	100%	63%
Delta Details →	AVL 20:17 → ATL 21:29DL 3101	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	6h 06m	87%	61%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:03 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 53m	89%	54%
United Details →	AVL 10:48 → ORD 11:52UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	7h 43m	96%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON