Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3269 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3269 American	AVL 08:00	DFW 09:34	18%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 569 American Flight history →	AVL 16:52	DFW 18:30	34%	11%	1.8%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 37m	98%	84%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 12:58 → DFW 14:51AA 1690	6h 59m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	5h 51m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	6h 40m	100%	73%
American Details →	AVL 05:30 → PHL 07:21AA 5846 · flown by Piedmont	1h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 08:21 → DFW 10:58AA 3307	6h 28m	86%	71%
American Details →	AVL 11:20 → CLT 12:32AA 6101 · flown by Piedmont	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	6h 38m	97%	69%
American Details →	AVL 12:01 → DCA 13:41AA 5213 · flown by PSA	1h 32m Washington	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	6h 43m	91%	67%
American Details →	AVL 18:13 → CLT 19:13AA 5489 · flown by PSA	3h 34m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → DFW 00:30 +1AA 1256	7h 17m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AVL 19:45 → ATL 21:02DL 5122 · flown by Endeavor	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	5h 28m	73%	53%
American Details →	AVL 20:15 → CLT 21:32AA 5792 · flown by Piedmont	1h 15m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → DFW 00:30 +1AA 1256	5h 15m	66%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON