Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4418 AVL 16:09 → LGA 18:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest DL 418 AVL 12:07 → LGA 14:02 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 16:09	LGA 18:16	19%	11%	2.8%	70%
DL 418 Delta	AVL 12:07	LGA 14:02	20%	8%	2.0%	no record
DL 5025 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 12:20	LGA 14:23	24%	11%	3.5%	76%
DL 4664 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 18:56	LGA 21:02	56%	39%	12.5%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON