tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3560 at 06:56, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3560 Envoy AVL 06:56 MIA 09:00 15% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 22m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 5h 14m 92% 66%
UnitedDetails → AVL 06:00 → EWR 08:08UA 4399 · flown by GoJet 1h 05m Newark EWR 09:13 → MIA 12:30UA 2785 6h 30m 87% 63%
DeltaDetails → AVL 20:17 → ATL 21:29DL 3101 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 4h 38m 87% 61%
AmericanDetails → AVL 18:13 → CLT 19:13AA 5489 · flown by PSA 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068 6h 35m 100% 60%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 6h 50m 100% 60%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 6h 34m 99% 60%
AmericanDetails → AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 13:27 → MIA 15:29AA 1198 6h 37m 100% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont 48m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 4h 19m 68% 45%
AmericanDetails → AVL 20:15 → CLT 21:32AA 5792 · flown by Piedmont 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068 4h 33m 66% 41%
AmericanDetails → AVL 14:44 → CLT 15:58AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 48m Charlotte CLT 16:46 → MIA 18:58AA 3011 4h 14m 68% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON