Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	5h 43m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 57m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	7h 01m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:59 → BOS 15:20DL 5778 · flown by Republic	2h 35m Boston	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	8h 22m	100%	76%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → MSP 12:59AA 1671	5h 07m	92%	75%
American Details →	AVL 11:20 → CLT 12:32AA 6101 · flown by Piedmont	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140	6h 39m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	7h 13m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:20 → LGA 14:24DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	3h 42m New York	LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:00DL 2313	8h 40m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AVL 17:43 → ORD 19:05UA 4189 · flown by GoJet	52m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 58m	62%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON