Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5833 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–42%.

Safest bet that day OO 5833 AVL 06:49 → ORD 07:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4737 AVL 18:38 → ORD 19:52 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5833 SkyWest	AVL 06:49	ORD 07:56	16%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 11:20	ORD 12:25	19%	6%	2.4%	82%
UA 4652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 10:48	ORD 11:52	19%	7%	1.8%	93%worse than usual
YX 4737 Republic	AVL 18:38	ORD 19:52	42%	20%	6.3%	no record
UA 4189 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 17:43	ORD 19:05	37%	24%	4.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON