tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5846 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record AVL 05:30 PHL 07:21 14% 7% 3.4% 86%
AA 6034 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record AVL 19:01 PHL 20:54 30% 13% 11.3% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 5h 22m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 5h 31m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 5h 59m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 5h 58m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → AVL 12:59 → BOS 15:20DL 5778 · flown by Republic 2h 00m Boston BOS 17:20 → PHL 19:15DL 5714 · flown by Republic 6h 16m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:28DL 1174 7h 03m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → AVL 18:13 → CLT 19:13AA 5489 · flown by PSA 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 22:24 → PHL 00:13 +1AA 1827 6h 00m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → AVL 14:44 → CLT 15:58AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 19:10 → PHL 20:58AA 9792 6h 14m 96% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont 46m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 3h 51m 65% 52%
AmericanDetails → AVL 20:15 → CLT 21:32AA 5792 · flown by Piedmont 52m Charlotte CLT 22:24 → PHL 00:13 +1AA 1827 3h 58m 45% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON