Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4327 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 4327 SJC 06:00 → DAL 11:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4313 SFO 16:38 → DAL 22:06 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4327 Southwest	SJC 06:00	DAL 11:26	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2116 American	SFO 05:45	DFW 11:18	7%	3%	1.7%	no record
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	8%	4%	1.8%	83%
AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	9%	4%	1.3%	91%
AA 304 American Flight history →	SFO 07:47	DFW 13:19	12%	4%	1.6%	93%
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	15%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 1188 American	SFO 09:05	DFW 14:37	18%	7%	1.4%	no record
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:00	DFW 05:38	22%	10%	3.4%	no record
AA 2046 American Flight history →	SJC 12:09	DFW 17:50	26%	10%	1.0%	82%
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	31%	10%	0.7%	61%
UA 1336 United	SFO 16:39	DFW 22:18	31%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 557 American	SFO 17:36	DFW 23:07	32%	11%	1.5%	no record
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	34%	11%	1.3%	45%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	SJC 14:36	DFW 20:03	35%	14%	0.9%	73%
AA 3222 American	SFO 12:35	DFW 18:08	36%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 2205 American	SFO 15:56	DFW 21:31	36%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	38%	12%	1.3%	50%
WN 4313 Southwest	SFO 16:38	DAL 22:06	52%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON