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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 141 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3534 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–53%.

Safest bet that day WN 3534 SJC 06:35 → ONT 08:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 962 SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:55 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 3534 Southwest SJC 06:35 ONT 08:04 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2061 Southwest SJC 06:15 LAX 07:38 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1098 Southwest SJC 07:15 LGB 08:42 4% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 3204 Southwest OAK 07:05 SNA 08:37 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 554 Southwest SJC 07:55 BUR 09:17 4% 2% 1.0% no record
WN 3152 Southwest OAK 07:25 BUR 08:52 5% 1% 1.0% no record
WN 2738 Southwest OAK 08:30 ONT 10:06 5% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 685 Southwest SFO 06:25 BUR 07:51 5% 2% 4.2% no record
WN 3847 Southwest SJC 07:30 SNA 09:00 5% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 642 Southwest OAK 09:17 LGB 10:51 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2818 Southwest OAK 08:13 SNA 09:45 6% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3153 Southwest OAK 08:43 BUR 10:10 7% 2% 1.0% no record
UA 2127 United Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:39 7% 2% 0.6% 96%
WN 3518 Southwest OAK 06:40 LAX 08:09 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3874 Southwest SJC 09:40 SNA 11:11 8% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1756 United Flight history → SFO 07:12 BUR 08:40 10% 4% 0.6% 97%
WN 3797 Southwest SJC 10:42 BUR 12:04 10% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 4317 Southwest SFO 06:40 LAX 08:07 11% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 1598 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 LAX 08:30 11% 4% 0.9% 94%
WN 3207 Southwest OAK 10:11 SNA 11:43 12% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 1362 Delta SJC 06:59 LAX 08:19 12% 5% 1.4% no record
WN 3786 Southwest SJC 09:56 LAX 11:19 12% 4% 0.6% no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 14:59 LAX 16:24 13% 6% 0.6% 92%
AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 06:57 SNA 08:37 13% 4% 1.1% 92%
DL 1380 Delta SJC 11:41 LAX 13:01 14% 6% 1.3% no record
UA 2363 United Flight history → SFO 08:33 BUR 09:57 14% 4% 0.6% 84%
WN 1194 Southwest SJC 11:57 BUR 13:19 14% 4% 0.9% no record
WN 3176 Southwest OAK 12:12 LGB 13:42 14% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 3826 Southwest SJC 12:20 ONT 13:50 14% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 3741 Southwest SJC 11:35 LGB 13:02 14% 6% 0.5% no record
OO 3847 SkyWest SJC 09:50 LAX 11:16 14% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 3788 Southwest SJC 12:50 SNA 14:20 15% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 20:25 LAX 22:00 15% 8% 0.6% 92%
OO 5405 SkyWest SFO 07:11 SNA 08:51 15% 4% 1.0% no record
WN 2497 Southwest OAK 10:00 LAX 11:29 16% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 4097 Southwest OAK 12:50 ONT 14:25 16% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 1409 Southwest OAK 14:40 LGB 16:10 17% 5% 0.6% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → SFO 09:20 LAX 10:53 17% 5% 0.9% 91%
OO 3849 SkyWest SJC 16:20 LAX 17:46 17% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 3667 Southwest SJC 21:05 SNA 22:36 17% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 1097 American Flight history → SFO 07:07 LAX 08:40 17% 5% 0.6% 79%
WN 1156 Southwest OAK 12:58 BUR 14:25 18% 4% 0.9% no record
WN 3210 Southwest OAK 12:46 SNA 14:24 18% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1260 United Flight history → SFO 06:52 LAX 08:21 18% 4% 0.6% 89%
WN 3633 Southwest OAK 11:58 BUR 13:23 18% 4% 0.9% no record
DL 1359 Delta SJC 18:18 LAX 19:39 18% 9% 1.2% no record
WN 1591 Southwest SJC 13:44 SNA 15:15 18% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 3852 Southwest SJC 20:10 SNA 21:41 19% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 3844 Southwest SJC 12:41 LAX 14:04 19% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 3184 Southwest OAK 12:00 LAX 13:28 20% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 3471 Southwest SJC 14:16 BUR 15:38 21% 7% 1.0% no record
WN 1341 Southwest SJC 15:20 ONT 16:50 21% 9% 0.5% no record
UA 589 United Flight history → SFO 19:10 SNA 20:55 21% 8% 0.7% 89%worse than usual
WN 3211 Southwest OAK 21:05 SNA 22:41 22% 4% 0.7% no record
OO 5763 SkyWest SFO 08:37 SNA 10:17 22% 7% 1.0% no record
WN 3851 Southwest SJC 16:24 SNA 17:54 22% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 3976 Southwest SFO 08:35 LAX 10:03 22% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 3580 Southwest SJC 23:06 LAX 00:30 22% 10% 0.6% no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 08:14 SNA 09:54 22% 7% 1.0% 79%
UA 1457 United SFO 08:50 LAX 10:17 22% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 4005 Southwest SJC 16:07 LGB 17:35 23% 8% 0.5% no record
AS 3465 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 20:47 SNA 22:27 23% 6% 1.3% 79%
WN 3823 Southwest SJC 19:45 LGB 21:13 24% 8% 0.5% no record
WN 3787 Southwest SJC 15:32 LAX 16:53 24% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 1284 Southwest SJC 17:36 BUR 18:59 24% 9% 1.0% no record
WN 2967 Southwest SJC 16:11 BUR 17:34 24% 9% 1.0% no record
WN 1670 Southwest SJC 20:55 BUR 22:16 24% 10% 0.9% no record
AS 340 Alaska SFO 07:27 LAX 08:53 24% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 920 Southwest OAK 18:41 LGB 20:11 24% 7% 0.6% no record
OO 6274 SkyWest SFO 09:24 LAX 10:55 24% 9% 0.7% no record
UA 2441 United Flight history → SFO 12:31 SNA 14:20 25% 10% 0.7% 89%worse than usual
UA 2661 United Flight history → SFO 10:40 ONT 12:12 25% 10% 0.6% 78%
WN 4350 Southwest SJC 17:51 SNA 19:22 26% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 643 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 SNA 12:06 26% 10% 0.7% 82%
WN 1198 Southwest SJC 21:25 ONT 22:54 26% 16% 0.5% no record
WN 1884 Southwest SJC 22:18 LAX 23:42 27% 10% 0.6% no record
F9 2458 Frontier Flight history → SJC 20:55 LAX 22:25 27% 12% 3.6% 83%
WN 3178 Southwest OAK 18:46 SNA 20:19 27% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 3209 Southwest OAK 17:16 SNA 18:54 27% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 1799 United SFO 18:56 LAX 20:35 27% 10% 0.5% no record
UA 2478 United SFO 18:53 ONT 20:30 27% 13% 0.5% no record
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:48 SNA 17:26 28% 8% 1.1% 85%worse than usual
UA 2001 United SFO 18:02 BUR 19:28 28% 13% 0.6% no record
OO 5571 SkyWest SFO 13:57 ONT 15:45 28% 16% 0.8% no record
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history → SFO 08:30 LAX 10:07 28% 4% 0.7% 64%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:38 SNA 17:18 28% 10% 1.0% 71%
OO 5318 SkyWest SFO 19:00 BUR 20:31 29% 13% 1.6% no record
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history → SFO 08:48 LAX 10:21 29% 9% 1.0% 70%
WN 3964 Southwest OAK 16:05 BUR 17:33 29% 9% 1.0% no record
WN 1816 Southwest OAK 21:02 BUR 22:34 29% 12% 0.9% no record
UA 552 United Flight history → SFO 21:00 ONT 22:37 30% 12% 0.6% 83%worse than usual
UA 1164 United Flight history → SFO 10:38 LAX 12:15 30% 10% 0.6% 75%
UA 2179 United Flight history → SFO 22:37 LAX 00:19 30% 11% 0.5% 72%
OO 5597 SkyWest SFO 16:57 SNA 18:53 30% 10% 1.0% no record
UA 2610 United Flight history → SFO 13:55 LAX 15:35 30% 9% 0.5% 78%
WN 3239 Southwest OAK 17:20 ONT 18:56 31% 13% 0.5% no record
UA 1506 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 LAX 13:55 31% 10% 0.6% 71%
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → SFO 20:42 LAX 22:08 31% 12% 0.8% 71%
WN 3157 Southwest OAK 18:12 BUR 19:40 32% 12% 1.1% no record
AS 269 Alaska SFO 17:04 SNA 18:29 32% 10% 0.8% no record
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 SNA 15:31 32% 10% 0.9% 80%worse than usual
UA 794 United SFO 20:47 BUR 22:18 33% 15% 0.6% no record
DL 2112 Delta SFO 12:07 LAX 13:33 33% 10% 0.8% no record
WN 3837 Southwest SJC 17:55 LAX 19:18 33% 11% 0.6% no record
OO 5467 SkyWest SFO 16:13 ONT 17:50 33% 16% 0.8% no record
WN 3185 Southwest OAK 20:55 ONT 22:31 33% 15% 0.5% no record
UA 2282 United SFO 17:54 LAX 19:31 33% 11% 0.5% no record
OO 3210 SkyWest SFO 11:33 SNA 13:13 34% 10% 0.9% no record
UA 1754 United Flight history → SFO 16:25 LAX 18:05 34% 12% 0.5% 73%
UA 2115 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 BUR 11:49 34% 10% 0.6% 81%worse than usual
UA 8211 United SFO 10:29 BUR 11:58 34% 11% 0.6% no record
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → SFO 20:05 LAX 21:40 35% 12% 0.8% 67%
OO 3048 SkyWest SFO 10:30 SNA 12:10 35% 11% 0.9% no record
WN 3167 Southwest OAK 20:21 BUR 21:49 35% 12% 1.0% no record
DL 2114 Delta SFO 16:57 LAX 18:23 35% 13% 0.8% no record
OO 6277 SkyWest SFO 11:49 LAX 13:20 35% 14% 0.7% no record
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:09 LAX 11:49 35% 14% 0.7% 59%
WN 3812 Southwest OAK 17:40 LAX 19:09 36% 14% 0.6% no record
DL 689 Delta SFO 14:28 LAX 15:52 36% 10% 0.8% no record
F9 2858 Frontier Flight history → SFO 11:54 LAX 13:28 37% 13% 1.0% 69%
UA 1079 United SFO 21:47 LAX 23:20 37% 12% 0.5% no record
F9 1160 Frontier SFO 17:59 ONT 19:38 37% 17% 1.3% no record
OO 249 SkyWest SFO 10:18 LAX 11:49 37% 14% 0.7% no record
OO 6276 SkyWest SFO 16:10 LAX 17:41 37% 13% 0.7% no record
AA 1022 American SFO 13:40 LAX 15:14 37% 12% 0.6% no record
UA 626 United Flight history → SFO 13:50 BUR 15:17 37% 13% 0.6% 69%
AA 3247 American Flight history → SFO 20:08 LAX 21:47 38% 13% 0.6% 88%worse than usual
WN 1079 Southwest OAK 19:55 LAX 21:24 39% 16% 0.6% no record
WN 2068 Southwest OAK 21:45 LAX 23:13 39% 15% 0.6% no record
UA 2764 United Flight history → SFO 16:10 BUR 17:36 39% 14% 0.6% 56%
AS 1369 Alaska SFO 10:21 LAX 11:47 41% 8% 0.7% no record
WN 3905 Southwest SFO 11:55 LAX 13:22 42% 11% 0.6% no record
UA 2409 United Flight history → SFO 19:46 LAX 21:16 42% 12% 0.5% 68%
WN 4312 Southwest SFO 12:30 BUR 13:57 42% 11% 3.0% no record
AS 753 Alaska SFO 13:25 LAX 14:51 43% 8% 0.7% no record
WN 3772 Southwest SFO 19:05 BUR 20:25 43% 22% 2.5% no record
AS 1457 Alaska SFO 16:51 LAX 18:15 47% 12% 0.7% no record
WN 3780 Southwest SFO 15:50 LAX 17:17 47% 15% 0.5% no record
AS 1412 Alaska SFO 20:13 LAX 21:38 49% 12% 0.6% no record
WN 3659 Southwest SFO 19:10 LAX 20:37 53% 19% 0.5% no record
WN 962 Southwest SFO 21:27 LAX 22:55 53% 18% 0.5% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON