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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 32 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 405 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 405 SFO 07:00 → JFK 15:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:11 → EWR 21:29 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 405 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 JFK 15:43 7% 3% 0.8% 90%
AA 234 American Flight history → SFO 06:15 JFK 15:02 8% 3% 1.2% 92%
UA 1149 United Flight history → SFO 07:00 EWR 15:49 11% 3% 1.1% 91%
UA 517 United SFO 06:06 EWR 14:57 12% 3% 1.1% no record
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 06:00 JFK 14:38 12% 3% 0.9% 89%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history → SFO 07:20 JFK 16:08 13% 4% 0.9% 80%
AS 211 Alaska Flight history → SFO 06:19 JFK 14:29 13% 3% 0.9% 92%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 07:52 JFK 16:29 13% 4% 0.8% 87%
UA 2416 United Flight history → SFO 00:13 EWR 08:40 14% 3% 1.0% 75%
UA 435 United Flight history → SFO 08:15 EWR 16:53 21% 6% 1.0% 83%
AA 276 American Flight history → SFO 21:20 JFK 06:00 23% 6% 1.3% 87%
DL 606 Delta SFO 09:13 JFK 17:24 23% 7% 0.8% no record
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 20:40 JFK 05:22 25% 10% 1.0% 74%
UA 698 United Flight history → SFO 21:15 EWR 05:51 26% 8% 1.1% 84%worse than usual
DL 319 Delta Flight history → SFO 22:35 JFK 06:48 27% 6% 0.9% 89%worse than usual
AS 40 Alaska Flight history → SFO 22:18 JFK 06:31 27% 5% 1.0% 88%worse than usual
DL 668 Delta Flight history → SFO 11:30 JFK 20:19 29% 12% 0.8% 76%
UA 2248 United Flight history → SFO 15:00 EWR 23:50 29% 11% 1.0% 67%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 13:15 JFK 22:02 29% 11% 0.8% 83%worse than usual
DL 363 Delta Flight history → SFO 16:05 JFK 00:16 30% 8% 0.8% 77%
UA 1141 United Flight history → SFO 22:35 EWR 07:00 31% 8% 1.2% 83%worse than usual
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 14:35 JFK 23:20 32% 10% 0.8% 80%worse than usual
AS 42 Alaska Flight history → SFO 13:38 JFK 22:26 32% 11% 0.9% 68%
AA 16 American Flight history → SFO 10:15 JFK 19:04 33% 10% 1.1% 75%
AA 148 American Flight history → SFO 14:45 JFK 23:42 34% 12% 1.1% 73%
UA 2626 United Flight history → SFO 16:20 EWR 01:10 34% 11% 0.9% 70%
AA 166 American Flight history → SFO 12:10 JFK 21:00 36% 13% 1.1% 74%
DL 631 Delta SFO 13:19 JFK 21:31 36% 11% 0.8% no record
UA 274 United Flight history → SFO 11:15 EWR 20:10 38% 15% 0.9% 76%worse than usual
UA 366 United Flight history → SFO 13:45 EWR 22:26 39% 11% 0.9% 57%
UA 2467 United SFO 10:27 EWR 19:00 43% 13% 1.0% no record
UA 2480 United Flight history → SFO 13:11 EWR 21:29 50% 14% 1.0% 61%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 29m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 30m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:04 → RDU 08:10UA 2080 52m Raleigh/Durham RDU 09:02 → EWR 10:48UA 1669 7h 44m 84% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON