Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1947 at 00:06 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1947 SFO 00:06 → MCO 08:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1939 SFO 12:31 → MCO 20:47 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1947 United Flight history →	SFO 00:06	MCO 08:28	12%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 583 United Flight history →	SFO 08:57	MCO 17:30	19%	7%	0.7%	90%
AS 368 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:23	MCO 16:32	25%	7%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
UA 1939 United	SFO 12:31	MCO 20:47	29%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 23m	94%	68%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	7h 40m	94%	64%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:38 → MCO 23:08DL 1302	7h 28m	92%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON