Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2933 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2933 BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2735 BDL 19:10 → ATL 21:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2933 Delta Flight history →	BDL 06:00	ATL 08:27	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2233 Delta Flight history →	BDL 08:05	ATL 10:29	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2554 Delta Flight history →	BDL 07:00	ATL 09:26	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2951 Delta Flight history →	BDL 11:35	ATL 14:03	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2739 Delta Flight history →	BDL 17:21	ATL 20:14	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 1082 Delta Flight history →	BDL 13:45	ATL 16:15	15%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2735 Delta Flight history →	BDL 19:10	ATL 21:54	17%	4%	0.7%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON