tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 353 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 353 Southwest BDL 09:05 BNA 10:40 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 658 Southwest BDL 19:10 BNA 20:45 17% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 04m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 29m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 05m Detroit DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682 4h 41m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:50AA 1320 5h 30m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 8h 17m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 43m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 20m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 54m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 6h 58m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 55m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 4h 23m 71% 61%
JetBlueDetails → BDL 08:00 → FLL 11:10B6 959 55m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:05 → BNA 13:32B6 681 6h 32m 68% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON