Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 438 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 438 BDL 05:40 → BWI 07:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2160 BDL 17:35 → BWI 19:09 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 438 Southwest	BDL 05:40	BWI 07:14	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2871 Southwest	BDL 08:55	BWI 10:29	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 934 Southwest	BDL 11:38	BWI 13:12	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2051 Southwest	BDL 13:48	BWI 15:22	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2160 Southwest	BDL 17:35	BWI 19:09	18%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON