Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3182 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3182 BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 848 BDL 17:37 → CLT 19:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3182 American Flight history →	BDL 06:01	CLT 08:08	7%	3%	1.4%	93%
AA 2133 American Flight history →	BDL 07:38	CLT 09:50	11%	5%	1.8%	91%
AA 2838 American Flight history →	BDL 09:57	CLT 12:06	14%	5%	1.0%	89%
AA 2741 American Flight history →	BDL 14:37	CLT 16:46	21%	6%	1.0%	68%
AA 848 American	BDL 17:37	CLT 19:46	31%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON