Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5307 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5307 BDL 08:02 → DCA 09:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OH 5058 BDL 19:22 → DCA 21:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 08:02	DCA 09:43	11%	3%	1.7%	79%
OH 5079 PSA	BDL 11:56	DCA 13:40	14%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 15:06	DCA 16:44	23%	8%	1.7%	51%
OH 5058 PSA	BDL 19:22	DCA 21:03	25%	9%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON