Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 364 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 364 BDL 07:57 → DEN 10:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2239 BDL 15:30 → DEN 17:58 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 364 United Flight history →	BDL 07:57	DEN 10:40	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 4121 Southwest	BDL 10:35	DEN 12:48	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2239 United Flight history →	BDL 15:30	DEN 17:58	32%	8%	0.9%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	97%	87%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	48m Dulles	IAD 08:14 → DEN 10:00UA 797	6h 00m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	6h 02m	91%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON