tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:05, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2729 American Flight history → BDL 06:04 DFW 08:59 10% 4% 1.1% 86%
AA 1367 American Flight history → BDL 18:20 DFW 21:27 33% 8% 1.1% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 04m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 5h 53m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 10m Detroit DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746 5h 54m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 6h 44m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → BDL 08:02 → DCA 09:43AA 5307 · flown by PSA 2h 19m Washington DCA 12:02 → DFW 14:26AA 1623 7h 24m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 35m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 8h 03m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:00 → MIA 08:13AA 412 1h 20m Miami MIA 09:33 → DFW 11:46AA 893 7h 46m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 11:14 → DFW 13:07AA 2747 8h 06m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 15:30 → DEN 17:58UA 2239 55m Denver DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565 7h 29m 60% 34%
UnitedDetails → BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627 1h 06m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 41m 66% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON