tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1361 at 08:20, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1361 United Flight history → BDL 08:20 IAH 11:10 11% 4% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 14m Dulles IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:58UA 1524 5h 58m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043 6h 07m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 8h 33m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 39m 90% 75%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 35m Chicago ORD 10:29 → IAH 13:14UA 2767 8h 05m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → BDL 07:57 → DEN 10:40UA 364 2h 50m Denver DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 10h 07m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:21 → ATL 20:14DL 2739 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 7h 36m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → BDL 11:39 → MSP 13:34DL 2007 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 7h 00m 91% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627 1h 18m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 7h 04m 75% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON