tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 676 at 06:28, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 676 JetBlue Flight history → BDL 06:28 JFK 07:30 10% 3% 0.9% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 2h 49m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 6h 28m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 6h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 25m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 8h 24m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BDL 08:02 → DCA 09:43AA 5307 · flown by PSA 3h 16m Washington DCA 12:59 → JFK 14:21AA 4522 · flown by Republic 6h 19m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 09:27 → JFK 11:18AA 822 5h 17m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:15 → DTW 15:10DL 2163 1h 08m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 5h 14m 90% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BDL 19:10 → ATL 21:54DL 2735 46m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632 5h 41m 75% 53%
AmericanDetails → BDL 13:07 → ORD 14:54AA 1408 1h 05m Chicago ORD 15:59 → JFK 19:07AA 2224 6h 00m 69% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON