Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2499 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2499 BDL 06:05 → MCO 09:02 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2050 BDL 18:20 → MCO 21:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2499 Southwest	BDL 06:05	MCO 09:02	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
B6 737 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 10:07	MCO 13:07	12%	4%	0.9%	86%
F9 2769 Frontier Flight history →	BDL 15:04	MCO 18:09	24%	11%	1.6%	74%
B6 437 JetBlue	BDL 15:40	MCO 18:41	27%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 2050 Southwest	BDL 18:20	MCO 21:15	28%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON