tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 412 at 05:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 412 American Flight history → BDL 05:00 MIA 08:13 8% 4% 1.0% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 19m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 35m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 57m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 58m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 7h 07m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:21 → ATL 20:14DL 2739 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 7h 34m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 7h 10m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 39m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 8h 48m 99% 60%
AmericanDetails → BDL 08:02 → DCA 09:43AA 5307 · flown by PSA 2h 12m Washington DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627 6h 36m 97% 59%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:45 → ATL 16:15DL 1082 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 8h 14m 98% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BDL 11:35 → ATL 14:03DL 2951 47m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 5h 20m 72% 42%
AmericanDetails → BDL 15:06 → DCA 16:44AA 5059 · flown by PSA 51m Washington DCA 17:35 → MIA 20:31AA 973 5h 25m 74% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON