Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: PT 6115 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day PT 6115 BDL 05:54 → PHL 07:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5825 BDL 14:52 → PHL 16:27 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6115 Piedmont	BDL 05:54	PHL 07:19	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
PT 5823 Piedmont	BDL 10:37	PHL 12:02	14%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 5811 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BDL 19:08	PHL 20:33	22%	8%	1.4%	74%
PT 5825 Piedmont	BDL 14:52	PHL 16:27	22%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON