tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1475 at 14:05, with a 40% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1475 JetBlue Flight history → BDL 14:05 SJU 18:11 40% 13% 0.9% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 08m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 34m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 34m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → BDL 08:20 → IAH 11:10UA 1361 3h 53m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 12h 18m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 55m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 8h 35m 88% 71%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:00 → MIA 08:13AA 412 2h 58m Miami MIA 11:11 → SJU 13:58AA 1613 8h 58m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 49m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:45 → ATL 16:15DL 1082 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 44m 95% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → BDL 08:00 → FLL 11:10B6 959 55m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:05 → SJU 14:42B6 1453 6h 42m 65% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON