Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 10:26, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2265 Southwest	BDL 15:20	TPA 18:36	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 34m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683	5h 32m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 29m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	7h 20m	98%	83%
American Details →	BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont	1h 23m Philadelphia	PHL 09:03 → TPA 11:58AA 1981	5h 38m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243	7h 02m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	5h 39m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	6h 08m	99%	78%
American Details →	BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 09:22 → TPA 11:16AA 2710	5h 15m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa	54m Dulles	IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277	4h 49m	70%	58%
American Details →	BDL 09:57 → CLT 12:06AA 2838	48m Charlotte	CLT 12:54 → TPA 14:49AA 2915	4h 52m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON