Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2350 at 15:23, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2350 Delta Flight history →	BGR 15:23	ATL 18:47	18%	7%	1.1%	93%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BGR 06:35 → LGA 08:17DL 5137 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m New York	LGA 09:56 → ATL 12:20DL 989	5h 45m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	BGR 11:58 → LGA 13:39DL 5254 · flown by Endeavor	3h 21m New York	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	8h 26m	98%	73%
American Details →	BGR 06:28 → ORD 08:26AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → ATL 13:21AA 2910	6h 53m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	BGR 16:56 → LGA 18:37DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	1h 53m New York	LGA 20:30 → ATL 23:43DL 975	6h 47m	89%	64%
United Details →	BGR 12:06 → EWR 13:58UA 4166 · flown by GoJet	2h 55m Newark	EWR 16:53 → ATL 19:21UA 2304	7h 15m	96%	61%
American Details →	BGR 11:37 → PHL 13:44AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont	2h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 15:44 → ATL 18:06AA 3041	6h 29m	90%	61%
Delta Details →	BGR 16:07 → JFK 17:43DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	1h 17m New York	JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962	6h 04m	85%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON