Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 4166 at 12:06, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4166 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	BGR 12:06	EWR 13:58	28%	8%	3.0%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BGR 15:23 → ATL 18:47DL 2350	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	9h 35m	100%	66%
American Details →	BGR 06:28 → ORD 08:26AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 10:05 → EWR 13:13AA 2416	6h 45m	94%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON