Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3509 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day YX 3509 BGR 09:25 → ORD 11:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3548 BGR 17:50 → ORD 19:47 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3509 Republic	BGR 09:25	ORD 11:39	10%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 3683 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BGR 06:28	ORD 08:26	14%	5%	1.3%	80%
OO 4702 SkyWest	BGR 16:53	ORD 19:02	37%	25%	4.1%	no record
MQ 3548 Envoy	BGR 17:50	ORD 19:47	39%	24%	4.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON