Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5378 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day OH 5378 BGR 05:50 → PHL 07:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2142 BGR 16:34 → PHL 18:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5378 PSA	BGR 05:50	PHL 07:50	11%	7%	2.4%	no record
OH 5134 PSA	BGR 19:06	PHL 21:05	19%	9%	1.9%	no record
AA 2142 American	BGR 16:34	PHL 18:39	27%	12%	1.0%	no record
AA 6096 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 05:45	PHL 07:40	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
AA 6123 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 11:16	PHL 13:13	10%	7%	0.0%	90%
AA 6038 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 16:49	PHL 18:51	36%	19%	5.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON