Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2162 at 05:19 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2162 BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 1132 BHM 18:46 → ATL 21:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2162 Delta Flight history →	BHM 05:19	ATL 07:23	5%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 1618 Delta Flight history →	BHM 06:15	ATL 08:24	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	BHM 09:30	ATL 11:34	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 3164 Delta Flight history →	BHM 10:42	ATL 12:46	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 1369 Delta Flight history →	BHM 07:28	ATL 09:34	11%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	BHM 12:03	ATL 14:08	13%	4%	0.8%	81%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	BHM 14:10	ATL 16:17	17%	4%	0.8%	88%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	BHM 16:00	ATL 18:14	20%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 2900 Delta Flight history →	BHM 19:48	ATL 21:52	23%	6%	1.0%	85%
DL 1132 Delta Flight history →	BHM 18:46	ATL 21:00	25%	7%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON