tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4777 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4777 Southwest BHM 05:35 BNA 06:49 3% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1901 Southwest BHM 18:30 BNA 19:44 26% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 11m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → BNA 09:50DL 1155 3h 35m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 33m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BHM 05:30 → CLT 08:01AA 5253 · flown by PSA 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 25m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:25 → BNA 14:38DL 790 3h 56m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 6h 24m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → BHM 05:15 → DFW 07:17AA 4186 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:22 → BNA 12:15AA 1396 7h 00m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BHM 15:48 → MIA 19:02AA 3909 · flown by Envoy 1h 01m Miami MIA 20:03 → BNA 21:26AA 2833 5h 38m 60% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON