Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 954 at 14:35, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 954 Southwest	BHM 14:35	BWI 17:56	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	4h 28m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 23m	99%	80%
American Details →	BHM 05:30 → CLT 08:01AA 5253 · flown by PSA	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 11:31 → BWI 13:09AA 2733	6h 39m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006	48m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	4h 22m	84%	76%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	5h 25m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:41DL 2670	6h 41m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → BWI 20:02DL 2928	6h 59m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BHM 17:41 → DTW 20:54DL 4990 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	4h 37m	46%	36%
American Details →	BHM 16:34 → DFW 18:47AA 5316 · flown by PSA	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251	6h 09m	67%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON